Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wuxia game?

Wuxia

Of 50 developers who shipped a Wuxia game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 101 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $18k, ×29 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×3615 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 101 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 29.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 101 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wuxia
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 50
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $171k → $187k → $6.4M → $18k → $69k → $129k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wuxia: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 50
Bottom 30% $3.4k (exactly $3,414)
Median $18k (exactly $18,340)
Top 25% $392k (exactly $391,713)
Top 5% $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092)
Developers, 2 yr 50
Released games 137
Announced 101
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 635% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wuxia
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 83,888 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.5k, median $18k, 1 in 4 over $390k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.5k. 3 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 101 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Wuxia

11 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Turn-Based Combat + Wuxia Strong odds $19k 20 devs
  2. Open World + Wuxia Fair $634k 12 devs
  3. Multiple Endings + Wuxia Fair $230k 11 devs
  4. Turn-Based Strategy + Wuxia Fair $19k 12 devs
  5. Strategy + Wuxia Fair $4.7k 23 devs
  6. Action RPG + Wuxia Poor odds $198k 7 devs
  7. Adventure + Wuxia Poor odds $192k 21 devs
  8. Exploration + Wuxia Poor odds $192k 12 devs
  9. Action + Wuxia Poor odds $189k 9 devs
  10. Simulation + Wuxia Poor odds $152k 15 devs
  11. RPG + Wuxia Poor odds $26k 37 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome 2026 · $51M Gujian3(古剑奇谭三) 2018 · $37M Path Of Wuxia 2022 · $30M Wandering Sword 2023 · $28M Legend of Mortal 2024 · $20M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Gujian3(古剑奇谭三) older $29.99 40,829 85% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,733,851) 上海烛龙信息科技有限公司, Aurogon Shanghai
Path Of Wuxia older $34.99 28,286 78% 849k $30M (exactly $29,691,814) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
Wandering Sword older $24.99 37,034 94% 1.1M $28M (exactly $27,764,390) The Swordman Studio
Legend of Mortal older $19.99 33,730 77% 1.0M $20M (exactly $20,227,881) Obb Studio Inc.
Amazing Cultivation Simulator older $24.99 19,111 85% 573k $14M (exactly $14,327,517) GSQ Games
Sword and Fairy 7 older $29.99 15,567 72% 467k $14M (exactly $14,005,630) 软星科技(SoftStarlight)
Hero's Adventure: Road to Passion older $17.99 22,287 84% 669k $12M (exactly $12,028,294) 半瓶醋工作室（Half Amateur Studio）
Xuan-Yuan Sword VII older $34.99 8,490 62% 255k $8.9M (exactly $8,911,953) SOFTSTAR, DOMO Studio
Fate Seeker II older $22.60 11,360 88% 341k $7.7M (exactly $7,702,080) JSL Entertainment
龙胤立志传 $19.99 7,153 77% 215k $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) TPP Studio
Eastern Era $24.99 3,028 65% 91k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) FunYoo Games
Path of Kung Fu $14.99 4,880 72% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) 游鲤化龙工作室
Beast Saga $20.99 2,714 80% 81k $1.7M (exactly $1,709,006) 嘉兴黑曜石(Jiaxing Obsidian)
JIANGHU CHRONICLES $17.99 2,046 70% 61k $1.1M (exactly $1,104,226) 一品阁
Psychic Kung Fu Master $19.99 1,723 60% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,033,283) 金十四工作室
Bladesong · EA $19.99 1,483 95% 44k $889k (exactly $889,355) SUN AND SERPENT creations
再见断刀 $9.99 2,563 92% 77k $768k (exactly $768,131) 非侠游戏
Destiny of Immortal · EA $11.99 1,763 80% 53k $634k (exactly $634,151) LeiYun Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.