Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › World War I

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWI game?

World War I

Of 61 developers who shipped a WWI game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 96 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.2k, ×5.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×5752 the market median. Revenue is up 565% on the market; 96 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 565% on the market, 96 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
World War I
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 61
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $4.7k → $1.5k → $1.1k → $2.5k → $17k → $5.8k (still earning) → $9.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for World War I: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 61
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $3.2k (exactly $3,236)
Top 25% $64k (exactly $64,315)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,612,296)
Developers, 2 yr 61
Released games 240
Announced 96
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 565% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

World War I
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 52,707 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $3.2k, 1 in 4 over $64k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 96 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with World War I

19 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Simulation + World War I Fair $32k 23 devs
  2. PvP + World War I Fair $1.3k 12 devs
  3. Turn-Based Strategy + World War I Fair $450 10 devs
  4. Tactical + World War I Poor odds $334k 13 devs
  5. Choices Matter + World War I Poor odds $57k 10 devs
  6. FPS + World War I Poor odds $17k 8 devs
  7. Adventure + World War I Poor odds $9.3k 17 devs
  8. Action + World War I Poor odds $6.4k 23 devs
  9. Shooter + World War I Poor odds $6.4k 13 devs
  10. Strategy + World War I Poor odds $3.2k 23 devs
  11. Wargame + World War I Poor odds $2.5k 23 devs
  12. Combat + World War I Poor odds $1.4k 10 devs
  13. Flight + World War I Poor odds $1.2k 7 devs
  14. Sandbox + World War I Dead $187k 7 devs
  15. Grand Strategy + World War I Dead $187k 6 devs
  16. RPG + World War I Dead $9.9k 7 devs
  17. Arcade + World War I Dead $8.8k 6 devs
  18. RTS + World War I Dead $3.2k 6 devs
  19. Tanks + World War I Dead $1.4k 6 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Battlefield™ 1 2020 · $241M Victoria 3 2022 · $62M Verdun 2015 · $52M Isonzo 2022 · $17M Holdfast: Nations At War 2020 · $16M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 1 older $39.99 200,661 86% 6.0M $241M (exactly $240,733,002) DICE
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
Verdun older $59.99 28,967 87% 869k $52M (exactly $52,131,910) BlackMill Games
Isonzo older $39.99 14,434 85% 433k $17M (exactly $17,316,470) BlackMill Games
Holdfast: Nations At War older $19.99 26,624 90% 799k $16M (exactly $15,966,413) Anvil Game Studios
Valiant Hearts: The Great War™ / Soldats Inconnus : Mémoires de la Grande Guerre™ older $14.99 24,468 95% 734k $11M (exactly $11,003,260) Ubisoft Montpellier
Iron Harvest older $29.99 11,682 74% 350k $11M (exactly $10,510,295) KING Art
Victoria II older $19.99 16,504 92% 495k $9.9M (exactly $9,897,449) Paradox Development Studio
Age of History II older $5.99 47,614 89% 1.4M $8.6M (exactly $8,556,236) Łukasz Jakowski
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator $19.99 13,278 97% 398k $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski
Over The Top: WWI $19.14 6,683 84% 200k $3.8M (exactly $3,837,379) Flying Squirrel Entertainment
Gallipoli $29.99 4,015 78% 120k $3.6M (exactly $3,612,296) BlackMill Games
Rising Front $14.99 4,057 88% 122k $1.8M (exactly $1,824,433) Sandstorm Studios Inc.
Aces of Thunder $29.99 1,159 57% 35k $1.0M (exactly $1,042,752) Gaijin Entertainment
KAISERPUNK $29.99 884 71% 27k $795k (exactly $795,335) Overseer Games
Age of History 2: Definitive Edition $9.99 2,600 83% 78k $779k (exactly $779,220) Łukasz Jakowski
Sunken Engine $14.99 814 80% 24k $366k (exactly $366,056) Two Nomads Studio
Warfare Legacy Collection $9.99 1,115 92% 33k $334k (exactly $334,166) Con Artist Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.