Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Western

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Western game?

Western

Of 201 developers who shipped a Western game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 293 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×337 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 293 games are announced against 111 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 293 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Western
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 201
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.8k → $1.5k → $899 → $1.4k → $1.5k → $1.5k → $449 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Western: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 201
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,346)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,389)
Top 5% $211k (exactly $211,415)
Developers, 2 yr 201
Released games 596
Announced 293
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Western
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 58,265 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 108 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 293 games are announced against 111 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Western

56 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Immersive Sim + Western Strong odds $4.4k 17 devs
  2. Management + Western Fair $13k 18 devs
  3. Resource Management + Western Fair $7.0k 19 devs
  4. Action RPG + Western Fair $5.5k 13 devs
  5. Third-Person Shooter + Western Fair $1.4k 15 devs
  6. 2D Platformer + Western Fair $1.3k 10 devs
  7. Crafting + Western Poor odds $69k 13 devs
  8. Sandbox + Western Poor odds $51k 13 devs
  9. Building + Western Poor odds $24k 12 devs
  10. Procedural Generation + Western Poor odds $24k 16 devs
  11. Open World + Western Poor odds $12k 22 devs
  12. Exploration + Western Poor odds $9.7k 45 devs
  13. Base Building + Western Poor odds $7.0k 13 devs
  14. Simulation + Western Poor odds $6.3k 29 devs
  15. RPG + Western Poor odds $5.9k 29 devs
  16. Character Customization + Western Poor odds $5.5k 16 devs
  17. Choices Matter + Western Poor odds $4.5k 24 devs
  18. Co-op + Western Poor odds $4.5k 16 devs
  19. Survival + Western Poor odds $3.8k 27 devs
  20. Tabletop + Western Poor odds $3.8k 13 devs
  21. Roguelite + Western Poor odds $3.1k 32 devs
  22. Adventure + Western Poor odds $3.0k 72 devs
  23. Online Co-Op + Western Poor odds $2.7k 19 devs
  24. Action Roguelike + Western Poor odds $2.5k 26 devs
  25. Physics + Western Poor odds $2.5k 14 devs
  26. Turn-Based Combat + Western Poor odds $2.5k 13 devs
  27. Tactical + Western Poor odds $2.1k 9 devs
  28. Action-Adventure + Western Poor odds $1.7k 43 devs
  29. Roguelike + Western Poor odds $1.6k 36 devs
  30. Strategy + Western Poor odds $1.6k 49 devs
  31. Bullet Hell + Western Poor odds $1.6k 24 devs
  32. Turn-Based Strategy + Western Poor odds $1.6k 17 devs
  33. Turn-Based Tactics + Western Poor odds $1.6k 16 devs
  34. Card Game + Western Poor odds $1.5k 15 devs
  35. Point & Click + Western Poor odds $955 11 devs
  36. PvP + Western Poor odds $899 27 devs
  37. Platformer + Western Poor odds $899 9 devs
  38. Action + Western Poor odds $898 114 devs
  39. FPS + Western Poor odds $779 34 devs
  40. Top-Down Shooter + Western Poor odds $599 22 devs
  41. Shooter + Western Poor odds $598 65 devs
  42. PvE + Western Poor odds $598 34 devs
  43. Multiple Endings + Western Poor odds $598 10 devs
  44. Puzzle + Western Poor odds $479 27 devs
  45. Shoot 'Em Up + Western Poor odds $479 20 devs
  46. Hidden Object + Western Poor odds $479 11 devs
  47. Combat + Western Poor odds $449 59 devs
  48. Visual Novel + Western Dead $9.7k 8 devs
  49. Twin Stick Shooter + Western Dead $4.9k 7 devs
  50. Stealth + Western Dead $2.1k 6 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Red Dead Redemption 2 2019 · $1.5B Hunt: Showdown 1896 2019 · $192M Fallout: New Vegas 2010 · $63M Red Dead Online 2020 · $36M Red Dead Redemption 2024 · $30M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Red Dead Redemption 2 older $59.99 846,270 92% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) Rockstar Games
Hunt: Showdown 1896 older $29.99 213,023 74% 6.4M $192M (exactly $191,656,793) Crytek
Fallout: New Vegas older $9.99 211,748 95% 6.4M $63M (exactly $63,460,876) Obsidian Entertainment
Red Dead Online older $19.99 59,572 82% 1.8M $36M (exactly $35,725,328) Rockstar Games
Red Dead Redemption $49.99 20,294 92% 609k $30M (exactly $30,434,912) Rockstar Games, Double Eleven
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Evil West older $49.99 10,215 74% 306k $15M (exactly $15,319,436) Flying Wild Hog
Desperados III older $39.99 11,880 96% 356k $14M (exactly $14,252,436) Mimimi Games
War of Rights · EA older $29.99 13,441 88% 403k $12M (exactly $12,092,868) Campfire Games
Call of Juarez: Gunslinger older $14.99 20,869 94% 626k $9.4M (exactly $9,384,789) Techland
Mohrta $19.99 1,482 91% 44k $889k (exactly $888,755) Scumhead, Osiol
Last Train Outta' Wormtown $11.99 1,453 96% 44k $523k (exactly $522,644) Get(Color) Games
Saloon Simulator · EA $18.99 860 89% 26k $490k (exactly $489,942) Glivi Games S.A.
Alaska Gold Fever $16.99 959 79% 29k $489k (exactly $488,802) Baked Games
Railroad Corporation 2 $39.99 376 69% 11k $451k (exactly $451,087) Corbie Games
Unbridled: That Horse Game · EA $24.99 487 85% 15k $365k (exactly $365,104) Mind Evotion Games
Soulslinger: Envoy of Death $19.99 472 63% 14k $283k (exactly $283,058) Elder Games
Wild Indigo Ranch $19.99 424 68% 13k $254k (exactly $254,273) Funday Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.