Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Villain Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Villain-Led game?

Villain Protagonist

Of 62 developers who shipped a Villain-Led game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 127 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $14k, ×29 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×884 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 127 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 29.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 127 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Villain Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 62
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $228k → $37k → $164k → $25k → $9.3k → $12k → $8.1k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Villain Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 62
Bottom 30% $3.0k (exactly $2,998)
Median $14k (exactly $13,941)
Top 25% $48k (exactly $47,981)
Top 5% $420k (exactly $420,020)
Developers, 2 yr 62
Released games 314
Announced 127
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Villain Protagonist
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $27.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $27.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 13,981 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.0k, median $14k, 1 in 4 over $47k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 6 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 127 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Villain Protagonist

26 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Strategy + Villain Protagonist Poor odds $34k 17 devs
  2. Puzzle + Villain Protagonist Poor odds $27k 10 devs
  3. Action + Villain Protagonist Poor odds $20k 24 devs
  4. Simulation + Villain Protagonist Poor odds $17k 21 devs
  5. RPG + Villain Protagonist Poor odds $17k 17 devs
  6. Adventure + Villain Protagonist Poor odds $17k 26 devs
  7. Action-Adventure + Villain Protagonist Poor odds $17k 12 devs
  8. Physics + Villain Protagonist Poor odds $14k 11 devs
  9. Roguelike + Villain Protagonist Poor odds $4.8k 9 devs
  10. Choices Matter + Villain Protagonist Poor odds $2.8k 9 devs
  11. Shooter + Villain Protagonist Dead $222k 1 devs
  12. Stealth + Villain Protagonist Dead $203k 4 devs
  13. Sandbox + Villain Protagonist Dead $95k 4 devs
  14. Combat + Villain Protagonist Dead $72k 10 devs
  15. Open World + Villain Protagonist Dead $48k 5 devs
  16. Roguelite + Villain Protagonist Dead $28k 9 devs
  17. Management + Villain Protagonist Dead $28k 8 devs
  18. Exploration + Villain Protagonist Dead $22k 9 devs
  19. Destruction + Villain Protagonist Dead $14k 5 devs
  20. Arcade + Villain Protagonist Dead $12k 5 devs
  21. Hack and Slash + Villain Protagonist Dead $12k 4 devs
  22. Choose Your Own Adventure + Villain Protagonist Dead $9.6k 6 devs
  23. Interactive Fiction + Villain Protagonist Dead $9.6k 6 devs
  24. Multiple Endings + Villain Protagonist Dead $3.0k 8 devs
  25. Visual Novel + Villain Protagonist Dead $2.5k 8 devs
  26. Action RPG + Villain Protagonist Dead $719 4 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Skul: The Hero Slayer 2021 · $30M Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League 2024 · $27M Maneater 2021 · $26M CARRION 2020 · $20M Six Days in Fallujah 2023 · EA · $16M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Skul: The Hero Slayer older $19.99 50,801 93% 1.5M $30M (exactly $30,465,360) SOUTHPAW GAMES
Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League older $69.99 12,718 60% 382k $27M (exactly $26,703,985) Rocksteady Studios
Maneater older $39.99 21,790 87% 654k $26M (exactly $26,141,463) Tripwire Interactive
CARRION older $19.99 33,270 94% 998k $20M (exactly $19,952,019) Phobia Game Studio
Six Days in Fallujah · EA older $39.99 13,012 79% 390k $16M (exactly $15,610,496) Highwire Games
Untitled Goose Game older $19.99 22,797 95% 684k $14M (exactly $13,671,361) House House
Evil Genius 2: World Domination older $39.99 11,255 69% 338k $14M (exactly $13,502,624) Rebellion
Prototype 2 older $39.99 10,389 75% 312k $12M (exactly $12,463,683) Radical Entertainment
Dungeons 3 older $29.99 12,648 93% 379k $11M (exactly $11,379,406) Realmforge Studios
Tyranny older $29.99 9,877 87% 296k $8.9M (exactly $8,886,337) Obsidian Entertainment
Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition $49.99 2,141 68% 64k $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) Oxide Games
OFF $14.99 3,093 95% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,390,922) Mortis Ghost, Fangamer
The Dark Queen of Mortholme $4.99 4,075 83% 122k $610k (exactly $610,028) Mosu
None Shall Intrude $14.99 934 73% 28k $420k (exactly $420,020) Aeterna Ludi
Buggos 2 $19.99 692 83% 21k $415k (exactly $414,992) Intrepid Marmot
Dungeon Warfare 3 $18.99 679 78% 20k $387k (exactly $386,826) Excidium Inc., Valsar
Mr. Sleepy Man $19.99 636 98% 19k $381k (exactly $381,409) Devin Santi
TORMENTOR $29.99 287 49% 8.6k $258k (exactly $258,214) Madmind Studio
Ocean Keeper: Dome Survival $9.99 826 77% 25k $248k (exactly $247,552) RetroStyle Games
Sniper Killer $11.99 618 86% 19k $222k (exactly $222,295) Black Eyed Priest, Henry Hoare

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.