Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi game?

Sci-fi

Of 3,985 developers who shipped a Sci-fi game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7,570 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×887 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 7,570 games are announced against 2,371 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 7,570 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 3,985
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.5k → $1.3k → $1.3k → $1.5k → $1.2k → $660 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 3,985
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $897 (exactly $897)
Top 25% $7.9k (exactly $7,913)
Top 5% $421k (exactly $421,378)
Developers, 2 yr 3,985
Released games 13,382
Announced 7,570
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,176,903 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $7.9k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 2,072 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7,570 games are announced against 2,371 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Sci-fi

178 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Programming + Sci-fi Fair $1.7k 56 devs
  2. Traditional Roguelike + Sci-fi Fair $1.4k 26 devs
  3. Idler + Sci-fi Fair $898 173 devs
  4. Boss Rush + Sci-fi Fair $839 17 devs
  5. Sniper + Sci-fi Fair $600 9 devs
  6. Outbreak Sim + Sci-fi Long shot $270 15 devs
  7. Character Action Game + Sci-fi Poor odds $305k 12 devs
  8. Open World Survival Craft + Sci-fi Poor odds $124k 32 devs
  9. Extraction Shooter + Sci-fi Poor odds $82k 26 devs
  10. FMV + Sci-fi Poor odds $52k 28 devs
  11. Turn-Based + Sci-fi Poor odds $39k 42 devs
  12. Political Sim + Sci-fi Poor odds $17k 24 devs
  13. Spectacle fighter + Sci-fi Poor odds $17k 48 devs
  14. Cooking + Sci-fi Poor odds $16k 18 devs
  15. Real-Time with Pause + Sci-fi Poor odds $16k 12 devs
  16. Co-op Campaign + Sci-fi Poor odds $13k 40 devs
  17. JRPG + Sci-fi Poor odds $12k 82 devs
  18. Dating Sim + Sci-fi Poor odds $9.0k 110 devs
  19. Online Co-Op + Sci-fi Poor odds $6.9k 212 devs
  20. Fighting + Sci-fi Poor odds $6.3k 16 devs
  21. Tactical RPG + Sci-fi Poor odds $6.3k 75 devs
  22. Loot + Sci-fi Poor odds $6.3k 120 devs
  23. Life Sim + Sci-fi Poor odds $5.8k 76 devs
  24. Crafting + Sci-fi Poor odds $5.5k 210 devs
  25. CRPG + Sci-fi Poor odds $5.4k 47 devs
  26. Real-Time + Sci-fi Poor odds $5.4k 17 devs
  27. Co-op + Sci-fi Poor odds $5.4k 270 devs
  28. Strategy RPG + Sci-fi Poor odds $5.0k 70 devs
  29. Colony Sim + Sci-fi Poor odds $4.6k 84 devs
  30. Metroidvania + Sci-fi Poor odds $4.5k 82 devs
  31. Base Building + Sci-fi Poor odds $4.3k 262 devs
  32. Building + Sci-fi Poor odds $4.2k 256 devs
  33. Mining + Sci-fi Poor odds $4.1k 96 devs
  34. 4X + Sci-fi Poor odds $4.0k 41 devs
  35. Looter Shooter + Sci-fi Poor odds $3.7k 91 devs
  36. Souls-like + Sci-fi Poor odds $3.6k 64 devs
  37. Sandbox + Sci-fi Poor odds $3.6k 251 devs
  38. City Builder + Sci-fi Poor odds $3.6k 73 devs
  39. Farming Sim + Sci-fi Poor odds $3.4k 20 devs
  40. RPG + Sci-fi Poor odds $3.2k 594 devs
  41. Visual Novel + Sci-fi Poor odds $3.1k 332 devs
  42. Action RPG + Sci-fi Poor odds $3.0k 224 devs
  43. Trading + Sci-fi Poor odds $3.0k 36 devs
  44. Party-Based RPG + Sci-fi Poor odds $3.0k 55 devs
  45. Roguelike Deckbuilder + Sci-fi Poor odds $3.0k 35 devs
  46. Action RTS + Sci-fi Poor odds $3.0k 60 devs
  47. Agriculture + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.7k 13 devs
  48. Turn-Based Combat + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.7k 180 devs
  49. Hack and Slash + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.7k 139 devs
  50. Automation + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.5k 163 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024 · $1.0B No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Subnautica 2018 · $307M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Halo: The Master Chief Collection older $39.99 239,603 92% 7.2M $287M (exactly $287,451,719) 343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian… (343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian Games, Bungie, Saber Interactive)
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III older $59.99 157,694 88% 4.7M $284M (exactly $283,801,892) Treyarch, Aspyr (Mac)
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Split Fiction $49.99 78,378 97% 2.4M $118M (exactly $117,543,487) Hazelight Studios
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
PRAGMATA $59.99 32,885 96% 987k $59M (exactly $59,183,134) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
DOOM: The Dark Ages $49.99 32,209 88% 966k $48M (exactly $48,303,837) id Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.