Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › RTS

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an RTS?

RTS

Of 811 developers who shipped an RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,440 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×746 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 1,440 games are announced against 427 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 1,440 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 811
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $3.0k → $2.7k → $1.6k → $1.9k → $3.0k → $1.5k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 811
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,599)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,116,921)
Developers, 2 yr 811
Released games 2,895
Announced 1,440
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 154,021 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 486 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,440 games are announced against 427 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with RTS

150 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. RTS + Rome Fair $64k 12 devs
  2. RTS + Outbreak Sim Fair $2.6k 16 devs
  3. RTS + Horror Fair $2.4k 20 devs
  4. RTS + Naval Fair $2.4k 15 devs
  5. RTS + Tabletop Fair $1.9k 25 devs
  6. RTS + Sports Long shot $861 19 devs
  7. RTS + Puzzle Long shot $479 48 devs
  8. RTS + World War II Poor odds $105k 23 devs
  9. Real-Time with Pause + RTS Poor odds $64k 28 devs
  10. Open World + RTS Poor odds $35k 45 devs
  11. RTS + Colony Sim Poor odds $31k 87 devs
  12. RTS + Historical Poor odds $30k 108 devs
  13. RTS + Diplomacy Poor odds $22k 23 devs
  14. RTS + Real-Time Poor odds $22k 21 devs
  15. RTS + Sandbox Poor odds $19k 119 devs
  16. RTS + Naval Combat Poor odds $19k 20 devs
  17. RTS + City Builder Poor odds $16k 151 devs
  18. RTS + Flight Poor odds $15k 14 devs
  19. RTS + Alternate History Poor odds $15k 34 devs
  20. 4X + RTS Poor odds $14k 33 devs
  21. RTS + Mechs Poor odds $14k 16 devs
  22. RTS + Modern Poor odds $13k 35 devs
  23. RTS + God Game Poor odds $10k 22 devs
  24. RTS + Building Poor odds $9.0k 209 devs
  25. RTS + Economy Poor odds $8.9k 142 devs
  26. RTS + Management Poor odds $8.1k 223 devs
  27. RTS + Base Building Poor odds $8.1k 266 devs
  28. RTS + Exploration Poor odds $8.1k 100 devs
  29. RTS + Trading Poor odds $8.1k 22 devs
  30. RTS + Survival Poor odds $7.8k 126 devs
  31. RTS + Agriculture Poor odds $7.8k 9 devs
  32. Grand Strategy + RTS Poor odds $7.5k 92 devs
  33. Online Co-Op + RTS Poor odds $7.2k 55 devs
  34. Co-op + RTS Poor odds $7.1k 65 devs
  35. RTS + Military Poor odds $6.9k 149 devs
  36. RTS + Level Editor Poor odds $6.9k 24 devs
  37. RTS + Resource Management Poor odds $6.5k 223 devs
  38. RTS + Farming Sim Poor odds $6.5k 15 devs
  39. RTS + War Poor odds $6.3k 207 devs
  40. RTS + Mining Poor odds $6.3k 15 devs
  41. RTS + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $6.1k 10 devs
  42. RTS + Character Customization Poor odds $5.8k 35 devs
  43. RTS + Cold War Poor odds $4.8k 12 devs
  44. RTS + Choose Your Own Adventure Poor odds $4.8k 18 devs
  45. RTS + Deckbuilding Poor odds $4.6k 52 devs
  46. RTS + Loot Poor odds $4.6k 15 devs
  47. RTS + Medieval Poor odds $4.5k 144 devs
  48. RTS + Choices Matter Poor odds $4.5k 81 devs
  49. RTS + Inventory Management Poor odds $4.5k 25 devs
  50. RTS + Procedural Generation Poor odds $4.4k 92 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Total War: WARHAMMER III 2022 · $189M Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition 2019 · $167M Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Crusader Kings III older $49.99 94,615 90% 2.8M $142M (exactly $141,894,116) Paradox Development Studio
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition older $39.99 72,275 85% 2.2M $87M (exactly $86,708,318) World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios)
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Definitive Edition $29.99 12,286 85% 369k $11M (exactly $11,053,714) Relic Entertainment
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Door Kickers 2: Task Force North $24.99 12,324 96% 370k $9.2M (exactly $9,239,303) KillHouse Games
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.