Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance game?

Romance

Of 1,743 developers who shipped a Romance game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,324 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.7k, ×48 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×2835 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 2,324 games are announced against 1,025 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 47.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 2,324 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,743
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.4k → $8.6k → $6.6k → $7.3k → $7.3k → $5.0k → $4.0k (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,743
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $5.7k (exactly $5,662)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $33,157)
Top 5% $337k (exactly $337,388)
Developers, 2 yr 1,743
Released games 6,997
Announced 2,324
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 369,508 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $5.7k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 1,295 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,324 games are announced against 1,025 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Romance

100 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. FMV + Romance Strong odds $56k 101 devs
  2. Action Roguelike + Romance Strong odds $6.5k 22 devs
  3. Gambling + Romance Strong odds $5.7k 11 devs
  4. 2D Fighter + Romance Strong odds $4.0k 8 devs
  5. JRPG + Romance Fair $13k 153 devs
  6. Immersive Sim + Romance Fair $12k 254 devs
  7. Minigames + Romance Fair $11k 14 devs
  8. Mystery Dungeon + Romance Fair $5.8k 12 devs
  9. Walking Simulator + Romance Fair $3.5k 36 devs
  10. Arcade + Romance Fair $1.8k 58 devs
  11. Incremental + Romance Fair $1.8k 146 devs
  12. Shoot 'Em Up + Romance Fair $1.5k 10 devs
  13. Hidden Object + Romance Fair $1.5k 60 devs
  14. Puzzle Platformer + Romance Fair $1.5k 41 devs
  15. Match 3 + Romance Fair $1.3k 25 devs
  16. Solitaire + Romance Fair $1.1k 11 devs
  17. Puzzle + Romance Fair $1.0k 209 devs
  18. Tabletop + Romance Fair $359 23 devs
  19. Board Game + Romance Fair $359 13 devs
  20. Grid-Based Movement + Romance Long shot $300 6 devs
  21. Hack and Slash + Romance Poor odds $119k 11 devs
  22. Base Building + Romance Poor odds $47k 10 devs
  23. Fishing + Romance Poor odds $47k 14 devs
  24. Building + Romance Poor odds $35k 18 devs
  25. Souls-like + Romance Poor odds $35k 10 devs
  26. Deckbuilding + Romance Poor odds $25k 15 devs
  27. Farming Sim + Romance Poor odds $24k 32 devs
  28. Open World + Romance Poor odds $22k 58 devs
  29. Racing + Romance Poor odds $21k 11 devs
  30. FPS + Romance Poor odds $19k 28 devs
  31. Agriculture + Romance Poor odds $19k 17 devs
  32. Sandbox + Romance Poor odds $18k 76 devs
  33. Creature Collector + Romance Poor odds $15k 16 devs
  34. Quick-Time Events + Romance Poor odds $15k 18 devs
  35. Life Sim + Romance Poor odds $15k 185 devs
  36. Economy + Romance Poor odds $12k 15 devs
  37. Cooking + Romance Poor odds $12k 42 devs
  38. Turn-Based Strategy + Romance Poor odds $11k 30 devs
  39. RPG + Romance Poor odds $11k 575 devs
  40. Time Management + Romance Poor odds $11k 65 devs
  41. Action-Adventure + Romance Poor odds $10k 77 devs
  42. Party-Based RPG + Romance Poor odds $10k 28 devs
  43. Tactical RPG + Romance Poor odds $10k 23 devs
  44. Roguelite + Romance Poor odds $9.4k 34 devs
  45. Investigation + Romance Poor odds $9.0k 62 devs
  46. Choices Matter + Romance Poor odds $8.8k 767 devs
  47. Strategy RPG + Romance Poor odds $8.6k 32 devs
  48. Crafting + Romance Poor odds $8.4k 37 devs
  49. Dating Sim + Romance Poor odds $8.4k 983 devs
  50. Character Customization + Romance Poor odds $8.1k 144 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition 2017 · $244M Dispatch 2025 · $157M Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition 2021 · $112M Dragon Age™: The Veilguard 2024 · $74M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Dispatch $29.99 174,624 97% 5.2M $157M (exactly $157,109,213) AdHoc Studio
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition older $59.99 62,205 91% 1.9M $112M (exactly $111,950,338) BioWare
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition older $49.99 34,157 83% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,225,253) Owlcat Games
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader older $49.99 33,701 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,541,390) Owlcat Games
Tales of ARISE older $49.99 27,643 86% 829k $41M (exactly $41,456,207) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
inZOI · EA $39.99 30,020 77% 901k $36M (exactly $36,014,994) inZOI Studio
Senren＊Banka older $34.99 33,721 98% 1.0M $35M (exactly $35,396,934) YUZUSOFT
SONIC X SHADOW GENERATIONS $49.99 12,178 96% 365k $18M (exactly $18,263,347) Sonic Team
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
Life is Strange: Double Exposure $49.99 7,842 68% 235k $12M (exactly $11,760,647) Deck Nine Games
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Sora no Kiseki the 1st $59.99 5,205 97% 156k $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) Nihon Falcom
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.