Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Real-Time

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Real-Time game?

Real-Time

Of 63 developers who shipped a Real-Time game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 105 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×18 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $800k, ×1281 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 105 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 105 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 63
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $142k → $16k → $20k → $16k → $13k → $3.6k (still earning) → $11k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real-Time: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 63
Bottom 30% $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Median $11k (exactly $11,242)
Top 25% $62k (exactly $62,338)
Top 5% $804k (exactly $804,332)
Developers, 2 yr 63
Released games 468
Announced 105
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real-Time
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 91,113 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $62k, 1 in 20 over $800k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 6 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 105 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Real-Time

41 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Character Customization + Real-Time Strong odds $2.0k 7 devs
  2. Real-Time + Roguelite Fair $11k 11 devs
  3. Real-Time + Building Poor odds $62k 14 devs
  4. Real-Time + Historical Poor odds $52k 10 devs
  5. Real-Time + Base Building Poor odds $37k 21 devs
  6. Real-Time + War Poor odds $37k 14 devs
  7. Real-Time + Wargame Poor odds $37k 13 devs
  8. Real-Time + Physics Poor odds $33k 7 devs
  9. Real-Time + Tower Defense Poor odds $32k 9 devs
  10. Action RTS + Real-Time Poor odds $31k 12 devs
  11. Real-Time + Strategy Poor odds $28k 39 devs
  12. Real-Time + Simulation Poor odds $22k 25 devs
  13. RTS + Real-Time Poor odds $22k 21 devs
  14. PvE + Real-Time Poor odds $20k 10 devs
  15. Real-Time + Tactical Poor odds $18k 15 devs
  16. Real Time Tactics + Real-Time Poor odds $16k 16 devs
  17. Real-Time + Combat Poor odds $13k 10 devs
  18. Real-Time + Action Poor odds $6.6k 23 devs
  19. Real-Time + Sci-fi Poor odds $5.4k 17 devs
  20. Real-Time + Adventure Poor odds $3.2k 14 devs
  21. Real-Time + Economy Dead $276k 6 devs
  22. Real-Time + Sandbox Dead $231k 12 devs
  23. City Builder + Real-Time Dead $231k 9 devs
  24. Real-Time + Medieval Dead $64k 5 devs
  25. Real-Time + Military Dead $37k 9 devs
  26. Real-Time + Survival Dead $37k 7 devs
  27. Real-Time + Management Dead $33k 13 devs
  28. Real-Time + Resource Management Dead $33k 11 devs
  29. PvP + Real-Time Dead $20k 9 devs
  30. Co-op + Real-Time Dead $18k 4 devs
  31. Real-Time + Procedural Generation Dead $11k 9 devs
  32. Real-Time + Roguelike Dead $11k 8 devs
  33. Real-Time + RPG Dead $9.4k 10 devs
  34. Real-Time + Fantasy Dead $9.0k 10 devs
  35. Action RPG + Real-Time Dead $6.7k 5 devs
  36. Action-Adventure + Real-Time Dead $6.6k 4 devs
  37. Real-Time + Puzzle Dead $5.4k 7 devs
  38. Real-Time + Magic Dead $4.5k 5 devs
  39. Real-Time + Space Dead $2.0k 7 devs
  40. Real-Time + Choices Matter Dead $1.2k 5 devs
  41. Real-Time + Exploration Dead $599 5 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition 2019 · $167M Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) 40th Anniversary Edition 2026 · $126M Age of Empires II (Retired) 2013 · $51M Company of Heroes 2 2013 · $41M Age of Mythology: Extended Edition 2014 · $29M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) 40th Anniversary Edition $59.99 70,073 78% 2.1M $126M (exactly $126,110,378) Asobo Studio
Age of Empires II (Retired) older $19.99 84,818 95% 2.5M $51M (exactly $50,865,355) Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment,… (Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires)
Company of Heroes 2 older $19.99 68,909 80% 2.1M $41M (exactly $41,324,727) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Age of Mythology: Extended Edition older $29.99 31,869 93% 956k $29M (exactly $28,672,539) SkyBox Labs, Ensemble Studios, Forgotte… (SkyBox Labs, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires)
Wargame: Red Dragon older $29.99 15,758 88% 473k $14M (exactly $14,177,473) Eugen Systems
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War II - Anniversary Edition (Classic) older $49.99 8,084 85% 243k $12M (exactly $12,123,575) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac/Linux))
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
Homeworld: Deserts of Kharak older $49.99 7,800 79% 234k $12M (exactly $11,697,660) Blackbird Interactive
Sins of a Solar Empire II older $49.99 7,147 83% 214k $11M (exactly $10,718,356) Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment)
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
Endzone 2 $29.99 894 65% 27k $804k (exactly $804,332) Gentlymad Studios
Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles · EA $39.99 633 87% 19k $759k (exactly $759,410) Drydock Dreams Games
Omelet You Cook $14.99 1,523 97% 46k $685k (exactly $684,893) Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose
Builders of Greece $19.99 537 54% 16k $322k (exactly $322,039) BLUM Entertainment, Strategy Labs
Castle Craft $19.99 480 82% 14k $288k (exactly $287,856) Twin Earth
Builders of Egypt $19.99 461 31% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Strategy Labs
Mini Settlers $12.99 592 85% 18k $231k (exactly $230,702) Knight Owl Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.