Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic game?

Magic

Of 2,377 developers who shipped a Magic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4,810 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×606 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 4,810 games are announced against 1,415 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 4,810 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,377
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $1.7k → $1.6k → $1.8k → $1.7k → $1.7k → $1.1k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,377
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,435)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,067)
Top 5% $288k (exactly $287,856)
Developers, 2 yr 2,377
Released games 7,332
Announced 4,810
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 271,071 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 1,314 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4,810 games are announced against 1,415 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Magic

159 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Minigames + Magic Fair $2.4k 8 devs
  2. Spelling + Magic Fair $1.6k 15 devs
  3. Gambling + Magic Fair $1.0k 18 devs
  4. Match 3 + Magic Fair $718 35 devs
  5. Escape Room + Magic Long shot $239 9 devs
  6. MMORPG + Magic Poor odds $111k 11 devs
  7. Fishing + Magic Poor odds $13k 13 devs
  8. Turn-Based + Magic Poor odds $13k 36 devs
  9. Farming Sim + Magic Poor odds $12k 33 devs
  10. Dating Sim + Magic Poor odds $9.9k 85 devs
  11. Life Sim + Magic Poor odds $9.9k 46 devs
  12. Roguelike Deckbuilder + Magic Poor odds $9.4k 45 devs
  13. Hunting + Magic Poor odds $9.0k 10 devs
  14. Mining + Magic Poor odds $7.3k 27 devs
  15. Boomer Shooter + Magic Poor odds $6.9k 16 devs
  16. JRPG + Magic Poor odds $5.9k 241 devs
  17. Automation + Magic Poor odds $5.7k 57 devs
  18. City Builder + Magic Poor odds $5.7k 40 devs
  19. Otome + Magic Poor odds $5.6k 15 devs
  20. Immersive Sim + Magic Poor odds $5.5k 65 devs
  21. Visual Novel + Magic Poor odds $5.5k 245 devs
  22. Choose Your Own Adventure + Magic Poor odds $5.0k 132 devs
  23. Sandbox + Magic Poor odds $5.0k 101 devs
  24. Base Building + Magic Poor odds $4.8k 82 devs
  25. Party-Based RPG + Magic Poor odds $4.5k 161 devs
  26. Bullet Heaven + Magic Poor odds $4.3k 56 devs
  27. Crafting + Magic Poor odds $4.3k 183 devs
  28. Metroidvania + Magic Poor odds $4.0k 75 devs
  29. Interactive Fiction + Magic Poor odds $3.9k 103 devs
  30. Idler + Magic Poor odds $3.8k 111 devs
  31. Building + Magic Poor odds $3.6k 121 devs
  32. Auto Battler + Magic Poor odds $3.3k 115 devs
  33. Time Management + Magic Poor odds $3.3k 42 devs
  34. Cooking + Magic Poor odds $3.3k 29 devs
  35. Trading + Magic Poor odds $3.3k 17 devs
  36. Choices Matter + Magic Poor odds $3.1k 297 devs
  37. Open World + Magic Poor odds $3.1k 175 devs
  38. Agriculture + Magic Poor odds $3.1k 15 devs
  39. CRPG + Magic Poor odds $3.0k 90 devs
  40. Hex Grid + Magic Poor odds $3.0k 20 devs
  41. Simulation + Magic Poor odds $2.9k 280 devs
  42. Management + Magic Poor odds $2.9k 126 devs
  43. Co-op Campaign + Magic Poor odds $2.9k 17 devs
  44. Character Customization + Magic Poor odds $2.9k 266 devs
  45. Souls-like + Magic Poor odds $2.8k 91 devs
  46. Creature Collector + Magic Poor odds $2.8k 70 devs
  47. Strategy RPG + Magic Poor odds $2.7k 186 devs
  48. Twin Stick Shooter + Magic Poor odds $2.7k 34 devs
  49. Fighting + Magic Poor odds $2.7k 18 devs
  50. Incremental + Magic Poor odds $2.6k 121 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition 2016 · $263M Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ 2017 · $132M Last Epoch 2024 · $112M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition older $49.99 823,357 96% 25M $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) CD PROJEKT RED
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition older $39.99 219,271 94% 6.6M $263M (exactly $263,059,419) Bethesda Game Studios
Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ older $49.99 87,777 88% 2.6M $132M (exactly $131,639,167) Monolith Productions
Last Epoch older $34.99 106,364 76% 3.2M $112M (exactly $111,650,291) Eleventh Hour Games
Dragon's Dogma 2 older $39.99 76,627 62% 2.3M $92M (exactly $91,929,412) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
The Elder Scrolls® Online older $19.99 134,421 82% 4.0M $81M (exactly $80,612,274) ZeniMax Online Studios
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Blade and Sorcery older $29.99 59,074 96% 1.8M $53M (exactly $53,148,878) WarpFrog
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Gothic 1 Remake $49.99 26,258 88% 788k $39M (exactly $39,379,123) Alkimia Interactive
FINAL FANTASY VII REBIRTH $49.99 25,363 75% 761k $38M (exactly $38,036,891) Square Enix
FINAL FANTASY XVI $49.99 24,065 78% 722k $36M (exactly $36,090,280) Square Enix
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd
Avowed $49.99 12,653 76% 380k $19M (exactly $18,975,704) Obsidian Entertainment
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Shape of Dreams $24.99 15,769 89% 473k $12M (exactly $11,822,019) Lizard Smoothie

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.