Do I ship it?

GamesMoodsJump Scare

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Jump-Scare game?

Jump Scare

Of 86 developers who shipped a Jump-Scare game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 98 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×4.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $72k, ×153 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 98 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 98 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Jump Scare
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 86
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.8k → $3.7k → $9.2k → $628 → $3.8k → $3.6k → $1.8k (still earning) → $29k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Jump Scare: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 86
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,242)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,066)
Top 5% $73k (exactly $72,629)
Developers, 2 yr 86
Released games 185
Announced 98
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Jump Scare
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 10,152 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $72k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 55 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 98 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Jump Scare

0 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any

No pair with Jump Scare has 25 games yet.

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Five Nights at Freddy's older $4.99 53,607 94% 1.6M $8.0M (exactly $8,024,968) Scott Cawthon
Five Nights at Freddy's: Help Wanted 2 older $39.99 5,092 94% 153k $6.1M (exactly $6,108,872) Steel Wool Studios
Five Nights at Freddy's 2 older $7.99 23,871 93% 716k $5.7M (exactly $5,721,879) Scott Cawthon
Slender: The Arrival older $19.99 7,912 88% 237k $4.7M (exactly $4,744,826) Blue Isle Studios
F.E.A.R. older $9.99 14,017 93% 421k $4.2M (exactly $4,200,895) Monolith Productions, Inc., Timegate
Five Nights at Freddy's 4 older $7.99 15,483 93% 464k $3.7M (exactly $3,711,275) Scott Cawthon
F.E.A.R. 2: Project Origin older $14.99 5,640 83% 169k $2.5M (exactly $2,536,308) Monolith
Five Nights at Freddy's 3 older $7.99 10,388 90% 312k $2.5M (exactly $2,490,004) Scott Cawthon
Spooky's Jump Scare Mansion: HD Renovation older $9.99 3,723 96% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,115,783) Albino Moose Games
DON'T SCREAM $7.99 4,505 65% 135k $1.1M (exactly $1,079,848) Digital Cybercherries
DON'T SCREAM TOGETHER $7.99 2,314 49% 69k $555k (exactly $554,666) Digital Cybercherries
PIT OF GOBLIN · EA $5.99 915 84% 27k $164k (exactly $164,426) Friendly Foe
Wasteland Bites $9.99 440 93% 13k $132k (exactly $131,868) CosmicDev
We Escaped a Twisted Game $4.99 792 94% 24k $119k (exactly $118,562) Deluded Games
Angel Engine $7.99 303 80% 9.1k $73k (exactly $72,629) HMS Studios, Black Lantern Collective
CROWDED. FOLLOWED. $5.99 301 92% 9.0k $54k (exactly $54,090) NIGHT DIAL
Silent Still 2 $4.99 357 67% 11k $53k (exactly $53,443) SolitaryStudios
Para Eyes $9.99 133 95% 4.0k $40k (exactly $39,860) Shawno Studios
Damned 2 · EA $13.99 92 84% 2.8k $39k (exactly $38,612) 9heads Game Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.