Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Heist game?

Heist

Of 107 developers who shipped a Heist game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 273 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1691 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 273 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 273 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Heist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 107
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $4.0k → $16k → $5.4k → $2.2k → $6.7k → $3.4k (still earning) → $480 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Heist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 107
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,698)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $30,270)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,061,742)
Developers, 2 yr 107
Released games 404
Announced 273
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Heist
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 40,477 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 273 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Heist

38 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. PvE + Heist Poor odds $30k 18 devs
  2. Co-op + Heist Poor odds $28k 23 devs
  3. Character Customization + Heist Poor odds $21k 10 devs
  4. Immersive Sim + Heist Poor odds $12k 23 devs
  5. Choose Your Own Adventure + Heist Poor odds $12k 8 devs
  6. Physics + Heist Poor odds $6.7k 14 devs
  7. Adventure + Heist Poor odds $5.5k 41 devs
  8. Exploration + Heist Poor odds $5.5k 38 devs
  9. Puzzle + Heist Poor odds $5.5k 19 devs
  10. Investigation + Heist Poor odds $5.5k 12 devs
  11. Online Co-Op + Heist Poor odds $5.0k 23 devs
  12. Open World + Heist Poor odds $4.8k 12 devs
  13. Action-Adventure + Heist Poor odds $3.4k 28 devs
  14. Choices Matter + Heist Poor odds $3.4k 20 devs
  15. Procedural Generation + Heist Poor odds $3.4k 14 devs
  16. Management + Heist Poor odds $3.1k 10 devs
  17. Stealth + Heist Poor odds $2.7k 37 devs
  18. Action + Heist Poor odds $2.4k 63 devs
  19. Loot + Heist Poor odds $2.4k 16 devs
  20. Arcade + Heist Poor odds $2.4k 12 devs
  21. Driving + Heist Poor odds $2.4k 11 devs
  22. Simulation + Heist Poor odds $2.0k 38 devs
  23. Strategy + Heist Poor odds $2.0k 24 devs
  24. RPG + Heist Poor odds $2.0k 14 devs
  25. Sandbox + Heist Poor odds $1.8k 12 devs
  26. FPS + Heist Poor odds $1.6k 17 devs
  27. PvP + Heist Poor odds $748 12 devs
  28. Tactical + Heist Poor odds $718 14 devs
  29. Combat + Heist Poor odds $480 16 devs
  30. Shooter + Heist Poor odds $479 18 devs
  31. Third-Person Shooter + Heist Poor odds $119 8 devs
  32. Visual Novel + Heist Dead $24k 8 devs
  33. Survival + Heist Dead $21k 5 devs
  34. Interactive Fiction + Heist Dead $16k 4 devs
  35. Multiple Endings + Heist Dead $809 6 devs
  36. Hidden Object + Heist Dead $480 7 devs
  37. Top-Down Shooter + Heist Dead $479 8 devs
  38. Collectathon + Heist Dead $0 5 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Persona 5 Royal 2022 · $165M PAYDAY 2 2013 · $134M Teardown 2022 · $114M Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition 2018 · $86M Call of Duty®: WWII 2017 · $60M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
PAYDAY 2 older $9.99 445,531 89% 13M $134M (exactly $133,525,641) OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetr… (OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetrack Games)
Teardown older $29.99 126,563 95% 3.8M $114M (exactly $113,868,731) Tuxedo Labs
Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition older $39.99 71,706 84% 2.2M $86M (exactly $86,025,688) Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxe… (Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxes, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral interactive (Linux))
Call of Duty®: WWII older $59.99 33,576 71% 1.0M $60M (exactly $60,426,727) Sledgehammer Games, Raven Software
PAYDAY 3 older $29.99 49,305 45% 1.5M $44M (exactly $44,359,708) Starbreeze Studios
METAL GEAR SOLID V: THE PHANTOM PAIN older $19.99 73,137 91% 2.2M $44M (exactly $43,860,259) KONAMI
Dishonored 2 older $29.99 42,988 90% 1.3M $39M (exactly $38,676,304) Arkane Studios
Crime Scene Cleaner older $29.99 32,469 98% 974k $29M (exactly $29,212,359) President Studio
Just Cause 4 Reloaded older $39.64 23,358 63% 701k $28M (exactly $27,777,334) Avalanche Studios
Star Wars Outlaws $69.99 12,268 71% 368k $26M (exactly $25,759,120) Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Crime Simulator $14.99 6,244 82% 187k $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927) CookieDev
Burglin' Gnomes $9.99 4,635 83% 139k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110) Fobri
The Break-In $19.99 2,040 87% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) jorgen games Ltd, Oliver Josh
The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time $14.99 2,361 90% 71k $1.1M (exactly $1,061,742) That Fish, That Other Fish
Dark Hours $9.99 3,481 81% 104k $1.0M (exactly $1,043,256) Piece of Cake studios
Clank! $22.99 542 92% 16k $374k (exactly $373,817) Dire Wolf
It's Only Money $24.99 473 78% 14k $355k (exactly $354,608) Usual Suspects Studios
Jackal $14.99 596 88% 18k $268k (exactly $268,021) Transhuman Design

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.