Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Football (American)

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Football (American) game?

Football (American)

Of 55 developers who shipped a Football (American) game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $450. Revenue is up 220% on the market; 40 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 220% on the market, 40 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Football (American)
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $179 → $1.7k → $1.3k → $52k → $3.6k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Football (American): Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,676)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,845)
Top 5% $902k (exactly $901,650)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 168
Announced 40
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 220% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Football (American)
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Football (American)
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 22,824 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $900k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Football (American)

13 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Football (American) + Tactical Strong odds $5.8k 12 devs
  2. Football (American) + Character Customization Strong odds $3.6k 14 devs
  3. PvP + Football (American) Fair $1.8k 17 devs
  4. Football (American) + Local Multiplayer Fair $1.8k 13 devs
  5. Football (American) + Sports Fair $1.3k 50 devs
  6. Football (American) + Action Fair $1.3k 16 devs
  7. Football (American) + Football (Soccer) Long shot $719 15 devs
  8. Football (American) + Choices Matter Poor odds $8.1k 11 devs
  9. Football (American) + Management Poor odds $3.6k 18 devs
  10. Football (American) + Strategy Poor odds $3.6k 22 devs
  11. Football (American) + Simulation Poor odds $2.4k 34 devs
  12. Football (American) + Arcade Poor odds $898 13 devs
  13. Football (American) + Physics Poor odds $719 11 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road 2025 · $23M EA SPORTS™ Madden NFL 26 2025 · $11M Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) 2017 · $6.4M FlatOut 2 2006 · $5.8M EA SPORTS™ College Football 27 2026 · $5.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
EA SPORTS™ Madden NFL 26 $69.99 5,416 52% 162k $11M (exactly $11,371,975) Tiburon
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
FlatOut 2 older $9.99 19,466 95% 584k $5.8M (exactly $5,833,960) Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Me… (Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group)
EA SPORTS™ College Football 27 $69.99 2,583 40% 77k $5.4M (exactly $5,423,525) Tiburon
EA SPORTS™ Madden NFL 27 $69.99 793 36% 24k $1.7M (exactly $1,665,062) Tiburon
Rugby League 26 $59.99 501 35% 15k $902k (exactly $901,650) Big Ant Studios
Football Coach: College Dynasty $19.99 1,485 95% 45k $891k (exactly $890,554) SidelineSim Studios
Rugby 25 $49.99 554 38% 17k $831k (exactly $830,834) Big Ant Studios
Legend Bowl older $24.99 910 87% 27k $682k (exactly $682,227) Super Pixel Games
Mutant Football League 2 $24.99 135 73% 4.1k $101k (exactly $101,210) Digital Dreams Entertainment
Snoopy & The Great Mystery Club $39.99 62 90% 1.9k $74k (exactly $74,381) Cradle Games
Axis Football 2026 $19.99 115 75% 3.5k $69k (exactly $68,966) Axis Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.