Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective game?

Detective

Of 1,115 developers who shipped a Detective game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,843 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×698 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 1,843 games are announced against 655 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 1,843 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,115
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $2.8k → $2.4k → $2.9k → $1.4k → $2.2k → $1.3k (still earning) → $779 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,115
Bottom 30% $386 (exactly $386)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,559)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,274)
Top 5% $331k (exactly $331,429)
Developers, 2 yr 1,115
Released games 3,399
Announced 1,843
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 117,062 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 8 in 10 of the 588 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,843 games are announced against 655 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Detective

85 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Political Sim + Detective Fair $9.9k 10 devs
  2. Typing + Detective Fair $2.8k 24 devs
  3. Escape Room + Detective Fair $1.8k 34 devs
  4. Idler + Detective Fair $1.7k 18 devs
  5. Procedural Generation + Detective Fair $1.5k 29 devs
  6. Word Game + Detective Fair $1.3k 82 devs
  7. Logic + Detective Fair $1.2k 230 devs
  8. Trivia + Detective Fair $1.2k 19 devs
  9. Board Game + Detective Long shot $300 29 devs
  10. FMV + Detective Poor odds $31k 20 devs
  11. Turn-Based Combat + Detective Poor odds $9.3k 15 devs
  12. JRPG + Detective Poor odds $8.7k 29 devs
  13. Time Manipulation + Detective Poor odds $6.5k 16 devs
  14. Dating Sim + Detective Poor odds $6.0k 56 devs
  15. Visual Novel + Detective Poor odds $3.8k 320 devs
  16. CRPG + Detective Poor odds $3.6k 27 devs
  17. Immersive Sim + Detective Poor odds $3.6k 130 devs
  18. Point & Click + Detective Poor odds $3.3k 296 devs
  19. Sandbox + Detective Poor odds $3.1k 18 devs
  20. Open World + Detective Poor odds $3.0k 42 devs
  21. Interactive Fiction + Detective Poor odds $2.5k 284 devs
  22. Co-op + Detective Poor odds $2.5k 52 devs
  23. Choices Matter + Detective Poor odds $2.5k 270 devs
  24. Adventure + Detective Poor odds $2.4k 690 devs
  25. Multiple Endings + Detective Poor odds $2.4k 290 devs
  26. Roguelite + Detective Poor odds $2.4k 24 devs
  27. Investigation + Detective Poor odds $2.2k 571 devs
  28. Character Customization + Detective Poor odds $2.2k 38 devs
  29. RPG + Detective Poor odds $2.1k 237 devs
  30. Survival Horror + Detective Poor odds $1.9k 92 devs
  31. Card Game + Detective Poor odds $1.9k 23 devs
  32. Simulation + Detective Poor odds $1.7k 239 devs
  33. Inventory Management + Detective Poor odds $1.7k 22 devs
  34. FPS + Detective Poor odds $1.7k 38 devs
  35. Exploration + Detective Poor odds $1.6k 465 devs
  36. Puzzle + Detective Poor odds $1.5k 624 devs
  37. Action + Detective Poor odds $1.5k 189 devs
  38. Choose Your Own Adventure + Detective Poor odds $1.5k 173 devs
  39. Combat + Detective Poor odds $1.4k 28 devs
  40. Walking Simulator + Detective Poor odds $1.4k 92 devs
  41. Dynamic Narration + Detective Poor odds $1.4k 25 devs
  42. Turn-Based Tactics + Detective Poor odds $1.4k 19 devs
  43. Action-Adventure + Detective Poor odds $1.3k 134 devs
  44. Online Co-Op + Detective Poor odds $1.3k 61 devs
  45. Shooter + Detective Poor odds $1.3k 36 devs
  46. Programming + Detective Poor odds $1.2k 13 devs
  47. Physics + Detective Poor odds $1.1k 27 devs
  48. Resource Management + Detective Poor odds $959 14 devs
  49. Stealth + Detective Poor odds $958 70 devs
  50. Hidden Object + Detective Poor odds $899 218 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Phasmophobia 2020 · EA · $410M Persona 5 Royal 2022 · $165M Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M Batman™: Arkham Knight 2015 · $67M Persona 4 Golden 2020 · $43M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phasmophobia · EA older $19.99 684,009 94% 21M $410M (exactly $410,200,197) Kinetic Games
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut older $39.99 118,124 92% 3.5M $142M (exactly $141,713,363) ZA/UM
Batman™: Arkham Knight older $19.99 111,190 92% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,680,643) Rocksteady Studios
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
Batman: Arkham Asylum Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 62,057 96% 1.9M $37M (exactly $37,215,583) Rocksteady Studios
Batman: Arkham City - Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 55,935 95% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,544,219) Rocksteady Studios
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy older $29.99 35,628 97% 1.1M $32M (exactly $32,054,512) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Batman™: Arkham Origins older $19.99 45,536 90% 1.4M $27M (exactly $27,307,939) WB Games Montreal, Splash Damage
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
MOUSE: P.I. For Hire $29.99 14,604 93% 438k $13M (exactly $13,139,219) Fumi Games
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
The Roottrees are Dead $19.99 9,700 96% 291k $5.8M (exactly $5,817,090) Evil Trout Inc.
Ghost Watchers $14.99 12,729 86% 382k $5.7M (exactly $5,724,231) Renderise
Urban Myth Dissolution Center $17.99 5,930 88% 178k $3.2M (exactly $3,200,421) Hakababunko
Shift At Midnight $9.99 10,147 88% 304k $3.0M (exactly $3,041,056) Bun Muen
Enigma of Fear $29.99 3,045 95% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) Dumativa, Cellbit

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.