Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › CRPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a CRPG?

CRPG

Of 564 developers who shipped a CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,002 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $600k, ×402 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 1,002 games are announced against 320 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 1,002 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 564
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.8k → $3.8k → $2.1k → $1.9k → $3.1k → $1.9k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 564
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.0k (exactly $1,998)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $23,384)
Top 5% $602k (exactly $602,305)
Developers, 2 yr 564
Released games 1,837
Announced 1,002
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 117,727 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 328 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,002 games are announced against 320 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with CRPG

124 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. CRPG + Martial Arts Fair $26k 13 devs
  2. CRPG + Female Protagonist Fair $2.4k 84 devs
  3. CRPG + Tabletop Fair $1.9k 22 devs
  4. CRPG + Traditional Roguelike Fair $1.9k 12 devs
  5. CRPG + 2D Platformer Fair $1.2k 62 devs
  6. CRPG + Incremental Long shot $449 32 devs
  7. CRPG + FMV Poor odds $58k 16 devs
  8. CRPG + Card Battler Poor odds $25k 15 devs
  9. CRPG + Grid-Based Movement Poor odds $23k 26 devs
  10. CRPG + Space Poor odds $22k 11 devs
  11. Online Co-Op + CRPG Poor odds $22k 13 devs
  12. CRPG + Souls-like Poor odds $20k 12 devs
  13. CRPG + Deckbuilding Poor odds $19k 12 devs
  14. CRPG + Resource Management Poor odds $12k 18 devs
  15. CRPG + Management Poor odds $9.6k 20 devs
  16. CRPG + Base Building Poor odds $9.6k 18 devs
  17. CRPG + Sandbox Poor odds $9.0k 40 devs
  18. Co-op + CRPG Poor odds $9.0k 11 devs
  19. CRPG + Turn-Based Poor odds $9.0k 17 devs
  20. Open World + CRPG Poor odds $9.0k 82 devs
  21. CRPG + FPS Poor odds $7.5k 14 devs
  22. CRPG + Character Customization Poor odds $7.2k 102 devs
  23. CRPG + Economy Poor odds $6.8k 14 devs
  24. CRPG + City Builder Poor odds $6.8k 11 devs
  25. CRPG + Tactical Poor odds $6.7k 31 devs
  26. CRPG + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $6.3k 17 devs
  27. CRPG + Tactical RPG Poor odds $6.1k 79 devs
  28. CRPG + Historical Poor odds $5.8k 28 devs
  29. Class-Based + CRPG Poor odds $5.8k 26 devs
  30. CRPG + Choices Matter Poor odds $5.8k 122 devs
  31. CRPG + Sci-fi Poor odds $5.4k 47 devs
  32. CRPG + Dystopian Poor odds $5.4k 21 devs
  33. CRPG + Roguelike Poor odds $5.0k 57 devs
  34. CRPG + Dating Sim Poor odds $4.7k 58 devs
  35. CRPG + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $4.5k 147 devs
  36. CRPG + Romance Poor odds $4.5k 62 devs
  37. CRPG + Inventory Management Poor odds $4.1k 29 devs
  38. CRPG + Strategy Poor odds $4.0k 118 devs
  39. CRPG + Party-Based RPG Poor odds $3.6k 111 devs
  40. CRPG + Turn-Based Strategy Poor odds $3.6k 74 devs
  41. CRPG + Mystery Poor odds $3.6k 59 devs
  42. CRPG + Detective Poor odds $3.6k 27 devs
  43. CRPG + Hack and Slash Poor odds $3.4k 33 devs
  44. CRPG + Fantasy Poor odds $3.3k 226 devs
  45. CRPG + Strategy RPG Poor odds $3.3k 111 devs
  46. CRPG + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.3k 70 devs
  47. CRPG + Building Poor odds $3.3k 17 devs
  48. CRPG + Card Game Poor odds $3.3k 17 devs
  49. CRPG + Medieval Poor odds $3.0k 97 devs
  50. CRPG + Magic Poor odds $3.0k 90 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition 2017 · $244M Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M Dragon Age™: The Veilguard 2024 · $74M Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition 2021 · $51M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut older $39.99 118,124 92% 3.5M $142M (exactly $141,713,363) ZA/UM
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition older $49.99 34,157 83% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,225,253) Owlcat Games
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader older $49.99 33,701 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,541,390) Owlcat Games
Gujian3(古剑奇谭三) older $29.99 40,829 85% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,733,851) 上海烛龙信息科技有限公司, Aurogon Shanghai
Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition older $39.99 27,485 88% 825k $33M (exactly $32,973,754) Larian Studios
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
Big Ambitions $25.99 14,003 92% 420k $11M (exactly $10,918,139) Hovgaard Games
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Drova - Forsaken Kin $24.99 9,455 93% 284k $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) Just2D
Esoteric Ebb $24.99 8,719 95% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) Christoffer Bodegård
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
Solasta II · EA $39.99 2,931 75% 88k $3.5M (exactly $3,516,321) Tactical Adventures
ZERO PARADES: For Dead Spies $39.99 2,911 83% 87k $3.5M (exactly $3,492,327) ZA/UM
Romantic Escapades $19.99 5,587 94% 168k $3.4M (exactly $3,350,524) 蠑螈

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.