Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime game?

Crime

Of 628 developers who shipped a Crime game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,260 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $440k, ×714 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 1,260 games are announced against 382 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 1,260 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 628
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $4.2k → $3.0k → $5.5k → $3.1k → $1.8k → $3.1k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 628
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,948)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,357)
Top 5% $449k (exactly $448,651)
Developers, 2 yr 628
Released games 1,828
Announced 1,260
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.04

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Price point
$7.04 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.04.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 560,665 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $440k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 306 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,260 games are announced against 382 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Crime

91 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Collectathon + Crime Fair $3.4k 10 devs
  2. Grand Strategy + Crime Fair $1.9k 8 devs
  3. Programming + Crime Fair $1.8k 12 devs
  4. Idler + Crime Fair $629 18 devs
  5. Building + Crime Poor odds $55k 13 devs
  6. FMV + Crime Poor odds $44k 19 devs
  7. Automation + Crime Poor odds $33k 16 devs
  8. Co-op + Crime Poor odds $30k 32 devs
  9. Dating Sim + Crime Poor odds $8.7k 35 devs
  10. Word Game + Crime Poor odds $8.7k 14 devs
  11. JRPG + Crime Poor odds $8.7k 13 devs
  12. Visual Novel + Crime Poor odds $8.0k 132 devs
  13. Immersive Sim + Crime Poor odds $7.6k 101 devs
  14. Tactical RPG + Crime Poor odds $6.9k 10 devs
  15. Open World + Crime Poor odds $6.9k 64 devs
  16. Driving + Crime Poor odds $6.6k 48 devs
  17. Automobile Sim + Crime Poor odds $6.6k 16 devs
  18. Typing + Crime Poor odds $5.8k 12 devs
  19. Life Sim + Crime Poor odds $5.7k 44 devs
  20. Online Co-Op + Crime Poor odds $5.0k 33 devs
  21. Sandbox + Crime Poor odds $4.8k 47 devs
  22. Walking Simulator + Crime Poor odds $4.7k 77 devs
  23. Stealth + Crime Poor odds $4.4k 78 devs
  24. Simulation + Crime Poor odds $4.2k 206 devs
  25. Management + Crime Poor odds $4.2k 65 devs
  26. RPG + Crime Poor odds $3.6k 104 devs
  27. Exploration + Crime Poor odds $3.5k 187 devs
  28. Adventure + Crime Poor odds $3.4k 334 devs
  29. Investigation + Crime Poor odds $3.2k 198 devs
  30. Interactive Fiction + Crime Poor odds $3.2k 118 devs
  31. Roguelike + Crime Poor odds $3.2k 19 devs
  32. Choices Matter + Crime Poor odds $3.2k 119 devs
  33. Choose Your Own Adventure + Crime Poor odds $3.0k 78 devs
  34. Procedural Generation + Crime Poor odds $2.9k 16 devs
  35. Puzzle + Crime Poor odds $2.8k 166 devs
  36. Logic + Crime Poor odds $2.8k 70 devs
  37. Card Game + Crime Poor odds $2.7k 14 devs
  38. Racing + Crime Poor odds $2.4k 17 devs
  39. Multiple Endings + Crime Poor odds $2.2k 121 devs
  40. Inventory Management + Crime Poor odds $2.2k 28 devs
  41. Arcade + Crime Poor odds $2.1k 42 devs
  42. Turn-Based Strategy + Crime Poor odds $2.0k 15 devs
  43. Strategy RPG + Crime Poor odds $2.0k 13 devs
  44. Beat 'em up + Crime Poor odds $1.9k 11 devs
  45. Physics + Crime Poor odds $1.9k 31 devs
  46. PvP + Crime Poor odds $1.9k 21 devs
  47. Crafting + Crime Poor odds $1.8k 27 devs
  48. Third-Person Shooter + Crime Poor odds $1.8k 19 devs
  49. Economy + Crime Poor odds $1.6k 34 devs
  50. Trading + Crime Poor odds $1.6k 18 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Ready or Not 2023 · $398M Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced 2025 · $190M Schedule I 2025 · EA · $173M Persona 5 Royal 2022 · $165M Watch_Dogs® 2 2016 · $143M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ready or Not older $49.99 265,219 79% 8.0M $398M (exactly $397,748,934) VOID Interactive
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
Watch_Dogs® 2 older $49.99 95,242 82% 2.9M $143M (exactly $142,834,427) Ubisoft
PAYDAY 2 older $9.99 445,531 89% 13M $134M (exactly $133,525,641) OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetr… (OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetrack Games)
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition older $19.99 180,637 83% 5.4M $108M (exactly $108,328,009) Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto
Mafia: Definitive Edition older $39.99 88,955 86% 2.7M $107M (exactly $106,719,314) Hangar 13
A Way Out older $29.99 78,174 87% 2.3M $70M (exactly $70,333,148) Hazelight Studios
PAYDAY 3 older $29.99 49,305 45% 1.5M $44M (exactly $44,359,708) Starbreeze Studios
Mafia: The Old Country $49.99 20,909 71% 627k $31M (exactly $31,357,227) Hangar 13
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
Cash Cleaner Simulator $19.99 7,334 92% 220k $4.4M (exactly $4,398,200) Mind Control Games
Yakuza Kiwami 3 & Dark Ties $59.99 2,229 62% 67k $4.0M (exactly $4,011,531) RGG Studio
RoboCop: Rogue City - Unfinished Business $29.99 3,931 84% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,536,721) Teyon
HENPRI $24.99 3,903 96% 117k $2.9M (exactly $2,926,079) Qruppo
Crime Simulator $14.99 6,244 82% 187k $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927) CookieDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.