Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Board Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Board Game?

Board Game

Of 985 developers who shipped a Board Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,156 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $120 for a 2 / 10 build. 624 developers shipped in the last year and 1,156 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 1,156 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Board Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 985
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $1.1k → $899 → $838 → $330 → $598 → $418 (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Board Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 985
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $3.4k (exactly $3,356)
Top 5% $95k (exactly $95,305)
Developers, 2 yr 985
Released games 3,314
Announced 1,156
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Board Game
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 67,084 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $360, 1 in 4 over $3.3k, 1 in 20 over $95k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 509 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,156 games are announced against 624 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Board Game

153 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Party-Based RPG + Board Game Fair $18k 24 devs
  2. Asynchronous Multiplayer + Board Game Fair $6.7k 30 devs
  3. JRPG + Board Game Fair $2.5k 13 devs
  4. Local Co-Op + Board Game Fair $2.4k 35 devs
  5. Board Game + Female Protagonist Fair $2.4k 35 devs
  6. Board Game + Historical Fair $1.3k 60 devs
  7. Board Game + LGBTQ+ Fair $1.2k 8 devs
  8. Board Game + Space Fair $1.2k 28 devs
  9. Board Game + Alternate History Fair $1.2k 20 devs
  10. Board Game + Mahjong Fair $1.1k 28 devs
  11. Party Game + Board Game Fair $899 72 devs
  12. Board Game + Dragons Fair $838 15 devs
  13. Board Game + Dogs Fair $776 11 devs
  14. Board Game + Capitalism Fair $748 34 devs
  15. Sports + Board Game Fair $719 41 devs
  16. Board Game + Interactive Fiction Fair $657 9 devs
  17. Board Game + Military Fair $628 33 devs
  18. Automation + Board Game Fair $600 21 devs
  19. Political Sim + Board Game Fair $600 18 devs
  20. Board Game + Nature Fair $599 44 devs
  21. Board Game + Psychological Fair $539 22 devs
  22. Simulation + Board Game Fair $538 196 devs
  23. Board Game + Card Game Fair $479 293 devs
  24. Choices Matter + Board Game Fair $479 119 devs
  25. Strategy + Board Game Fair $449 800 devs
  26. Tactical + Board Game Fair $449 229 devs
  27. Board Game + Dating Sim Fair $449 10 devs
  28. Board Game + Tabletop Fair $359 459 devs
  29. Board Game + Romance Fair $359 13 devs
  30. Social Deduction + Board Game Long shot $899 13 devs
  31. Board Game + Detective Long shot $300 29 devs
  32. Local Multiplayer + Board Game Long shot $240 111 devs
  33. Roguelike Deckbuilder + Board Game Poor odds $10k 62 devs
  34. 4X + Board Game Poor odds $10k 12 devs
  35. Turn-Based + Board Game Poor odds $4.0k 46 devs
  36. Procedural Generation + Board Game Poor odds $3.3k 69 devs
  37. Action Roguelike + Board Game Poor odds $3.1k 6 devs
  38. Hex Grid + Board Game Poor odds $2.5k 65 devs
  39. Base Building + Board Game Poor odds $2.5k 24 devs
  40. Character Customization + Board Game Poor odds $2.4k 39 devs
  41. Resource Management + Board Game Poor odds $2.2k 84 devs
  42. Diplomacy + Board Game Poor odds $2.2k 7 devs
  43. Dungeon Crawler + Board Game Poor odds $2.1k 50 devs
  44. CRPG + Board Game Poor odds $2.1k 9 devs
  45. Board Game + Steampunk Poor odds $2.1k 9 devs
  46. Board Game + Noir Poor odds $2.0k 9 devs
  47. RPG + Board Game Poor odds $1.9k 140 devs
  48. Perma Death + Board Game Poor odds $1.9k 19 devs
  49. Strategy RPG + Board Game Poor odds $1.9k 64 devs
  50. Sandbox + Board Game Poor odds $1.9k 36 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Tabletop Simulator 2015 · $28M Pummel Party 2018 · $21M For The King 2018 · $19M Gloomhaven 2021 · $14M UNO 2017 · $13M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tabletop Simulator older $19.99 46,875 95% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,110,937) Berserk Games
Pummel Party older $14.99 46,134 88% 1.4M $21M (exactly $20,746,460) Rebuilt Games
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
Gloomhaven older $34.99 13,628 82% 409k $14M (exactly $14,305,312) Flaming Fowl Studios, Saber Interactive
UNO older $9.99 42,019 70% 1.3M $13M (exactly $12,593,094) Ubisoft Entertainment
Dorfromantik older $13.99 27,441 96% 823k $12M (exactly $11,516,988) Toukana Interactive
Liar's Bar · EA $6.99 48,708 89% 1.5M $10M (exactly $10,214,068) Curve Animation
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus older $29.99 11,279 91% 338k $10M (exactly $10,147,716) Bulwark Studios
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Armello older $24.99 11,013 82% 330k $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) League of Geeks
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
Frosthaven · EA $39.99 814 72% 24k $977k (exactly $976,556) Snapshot Games Inc.
Guilty as Sock! $5.50 4,836 89% 145k $798k (exactly $797,940) Demon Max
Gambonanza $14.99 1,604 74% 48k $721k (exactly $721,319) Blukulélé
The Legend of Fancy Realm Remake $24.99 897 86% 27k $672k (exactly $672,481) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Stripjong - Super Real Mahjong Venus Returns $29.99 740 80% 22k $666k (exactly $665,778) ILLUMINATION
Supercar Collection Simulator $12.99 1,528 85% 46k $595k (exactly $595,462) Kiki Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.