Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Bikes

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bike game?

Bikes

Of 62 developers who shipped a Bike game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 68 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $440k, ×294 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 68 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 68 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bikes
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 62
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $4.7k → $1.0k → $1.4k → $1.5k → $4.2k → $600 (still earning) → $9.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bikes: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 62
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,398)
Top 5% $441k (exactly $440,779)
Developers, 2 yr 62
Released games 233
Announced 68
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bikes
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Bikes
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 8,808 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $440k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Bikes

22 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Bikes + Sports Fair $2.5k 25 devs
  2. Bikes + Action-Adventure Fair $2.5k 11 devs
  3. Bikes + Simulation Fair $1.5k 30 devs
  4. Bikes + Character Customization Fair $1.5k 11 devs
  5. PvP + Bikes Fair $1.5k 10 devs
  6. Bikes + Motocross Long shot $959 12 devs
  7. Bikes + Driving Poor odds $4.3k 14 devs
  8. Bikes + Cycling Poor odds $4.2k 13 devs
  9. Open World + Bikes Poor odds $4.2k 12 devs
  10. Bikes + Physics Poor odds $2.1k 23 devs
  11. Bikes + Adventure Poor odds $2.1k 20 devs
  12. Bikes + Racing Poor odds $1.8k 37 devs
  13. Bikes + Action Poor odds $1.5k 23 devs
  14. Automobile Sim + Bikes Poor odds $1.5k 14 devs
  15. Bikes + Arcade Poor odds $959 24 devs
  16. Bikes + Motorbike Poor odds $959 24 devs
  17. Bikes + Strategy Poor odds $299 13 devs
  18. Bikes + Platformer Poor odds $239 5 devs
  19. Immersive Sim + Bikes Dead $72k 6 devs
  20. Bikes + Exploration Dead $4.2k 14 devs
  21. Bikes + BMX Dead $2.1k 6 devs
  22. Bikes + Offroad Dead $959 8 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

MX Bikes 2019 · EA · $37M Riders Republic 2023 · $37M Descenders 2019 · $15M RIDE 4 2020 · $12M RIDE 5 2023 · $5.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MX Bikes · EA older $34.99 35,684 94% 1.1M $37M (exactly $37,457,495) PiBoSo
Riders Republic older $39.99 30,458 81% 914k $37M (exactly $36,540,463) Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Pune, Ubisoft Odesa)
Descenders older $24.99 19,836 95% 595k $15M (exactly $14,871,049) RageSquid
RIDE 4 older $39.99 9,921 83% 298k $12M (exactly $11,902,224) Milestone S.r.l.
RIDE 5 older $49.99 3,368 82% 101k $5.1M (exactly $5,050,990) Milestone S.r.l.
RIDE 3 older $29.99 4,534 84% 136k $4.1M (exactly $4,079,240) Milestone S.r.l.
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
BMX Streets older $24.99 4,366 80% 131k $3.3M (exactly $3,273,190) Mash Games
Ride 2 older $24.99 2,499 87% 75k $1.9M (exactly $1,873,500) Milestone S.r.l.
MX vs. ATV Reflex older $19.99 2,904 88% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,741,529) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
MAVRIX by Matt Jones $39.99 969 80% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509) Third Kind Games
RIDE 6 $59.99 549 68% 16k $988k (exactly $988,035) Milestone S.r.l.
MotoGP™25 $49.99 592 74% 18k $888k (exactly $887,822) Milestone S.r.l.
Pro Cycling Manager 25 $39.99 496 75% 15k $595k (exactly $595,051) Cyanide Studio
Wheel World $19.99 735 90% 22k $441k (exactly $440,779) Messhof
MotoGP™26 $59.99 225 64% 6.8k $405k (exactly $404,932) Milestone S.r.l.
VRacer Hoverbike $29.99 307 89% 9.2k $276k (exactly $276,208) VertexBreakers
Tour de France 2025 $39.99 182 77% 5.5k $218k (exactly $218,345) Cyanide Studio
LANESPLIT $17.99 381 77% 11k $206k (exactly $205,626) FunkyMouse

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.