Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Assassin game?

Assassins

Of 144 developers who shipped an Assassin game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 286 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 286 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper, while revenue is up 320% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 320% on the market, 286 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Assassins
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 144
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $629 → $1.5k → $2.2k → $299 → $597 → $1.9k → $809 (still earning) → $480 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Assassins: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 144
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Top 5% $424k (exactly $423,580)
Developers, 2 yr 144
Released games 555
Announced 286
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 320% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Assassins
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 88,415 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $720, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 87 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 286 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Assassins

46 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Immersive Sim + Assassins Poor odds $6.3k 12 devs
  2. Visual Novel + Assassins Poor odds $5.8k 17 devs
  3. Shooter + Assassins Poor odds $2.9k 27 devs
  4. Interactive Fiction + Assassins Poor odds $2.7k 14 devs
  5. Exploration + Assassins Poor odds $2.2k 43 devs
  6. Choices Matter + Assassins Poor odds $2.2k 18 devs
  7. Multiple Endings + Assassins Poor odds $2.2k 17 devs
  8. Choose Your Own Adventure + Assassins Poor odds $2.2k 13 devs
  9. Platformer + Assassins Poor odds $1.9k 11 devs
  10. Hack and Slash + Assassins Poor odds $1.6k 14 devs
  11. Survival Horror + Assassins Poor odds $1.6k 20 devs
  12. Action-Adventure + Assassins Poor odds $1.4k 44 devs
  13. FPS + Assassins Poor odds $1.4k 17 devs
  14. Adventure + Assassins Poor odds $1.3k 80 devs
  15. Hidden Object + Assassins Poor odds $1.3k 14 devs
  16. Survival + Assassins Poor odds $898 17 devs
  17. Walking Simulator + Assassins Poor odds $748 8 devs
  18. Stealth + Assassins Poor odds $719 53 devs
  19. Action RPG + Assassins Poor odds $719 14 devs
  20. Point & Click + Assassins Poor odds $653 11 devs
  21. Puzzle + Assassins Poor odds $599 35 devs
  22. Simulation + Assassins Poor odds $599 15 devs
  23. Logic + Assassins Poor odds $597 13 devs
  24. Action + Assassins Poor odds $564 91 devs
  25. RPG + Assassins Poor odds $539 28 devs
  26. PvE + Assassins Poor odds $539 10 devs
  27. Combat + Assassins Poor odds $480 27 devs
  28. Tactical + Assassins Poor odds $480 18 devs
  29. Investigation + Assassins Poor odds $360 18 devs
  30. Parkour + Assassins Dead $81k 11 devs
  31. Open World + Assassins Dead $18k 7 devs
  32. Sandbox + Assassins Dead $1.8k 5 devs
  33. Third-Person Shooter + Assassins Dead $1.6k 12 devs
  34. Physics + Assassins Dead $1.4k 8 devs
  35. Beat 'em up + Assassins Dead $1.4k 7 devs
  36. Swordplay + Assassins Dead $1.4k 7 devs
  37. Shoot 'Em Up + Assassins Dead $1.4k 6 devs
  38. Action Roguelike + Assassins Dead $449 12 devs
  39. Roguelike + Assassins Dead $449 10 devs
  40. Strategy + Assassins Dead $359 29 devs
  41. PvP + Assassins Dead $269 10 devs
  42. Arcade + Assassins Dead $210 14 devs
  43. 2D Platformer + Assassins Dead $210 9 devs
  44. 3D Platformer + Assassins Dead $60 14 devs
  45. Co-op + Assassins Dead $60 7 devs
  46. Character Customization + Assassins Dead $0 8 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition 2019 · $467M Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M Assassin's Creed® Origins 2017 · $216M Assassin's Creed Valhalla 2022 · $74M Assassin’s Creed Shadows 2025 · $73M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition older $59.99 259,508 95% 7.8M $467M (exactly $467,036,548) FromSoftware, Inc.
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Assassin's Creed® Origins older $59.99 119,764 85% 3.6M $216M (exactly $215,539,271) Ubisoft Montreal
Assassin's Creed Valhalla older $59.99 41,083 70% 1.2M $74M (exactly $73,937,075) Ubisoft Montreal
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
Assassin's Creed® Unity older $29.99 79,116 77% 2.4M $71M (exactly $71,180,665) Ubisoft
HITMAN World of Assassination older $29.99 58,655 87% 1.8M $53M (exactly $52,771,904) IO Interactive A/S
Counter-Strike older $9.99 169,780 96% 5.1M $51M (exactly $50,883,066) Valve
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
Dishonored 2 older $29.99 42,988 90% 1.3M $39M (exactly $38,676,304) Arkane Studios
Assassin's Creed Mirage $49.99 11,612 76% 348k $17M (exactly $17,414,516) Ubisoft Bordeaux
The Killing Antidote · EA $29.99 7,512 88% 225k $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546) MetalStar Studio
Suit for Hire $14.99 3,263 92% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,467,371) Godmode Interactive
Styx: Blades of Greed $39.99 782 66% 23k $938k (exactly $938,165) Cyanide Studio
Gunman Contracts - Stand Alone · EA $24.99 1,180 78% 35k $885k (exactly $884,646) ANB_Seth
BLACKWOOD $24.99 565 46% 17k $424k (exactly $423,580) AttritoM7 Productions
Evil School $7.99 1,058 92% 32k $254k (exactly $253,603) CineGame Interactive
Brush Burial: Gutter World $9.99 838 93% 25k $251k (exactly $251,149) Knife Demon Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.