Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Arena Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter

Of 847 developers who shipped an Arena Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,449 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 1,449 games are announced against 497 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper, while revenue is down 15% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 1,449 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 847
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $450 → $1.3k → $987 → $899 → $479 → $599 → $359 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arena Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 847
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $419 (exactly $419)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,148)
Top 5% $91k (exactly $91,109)
Developers, 2 yr 847
Released games 2,914
Announced 1,449
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 106,405 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $420, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $91k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 492 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,449 games are announced against 497 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Arena Shooter

135 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Arena Shooter + Incremental Fair $3.5k 15 devs
  2. Arena Shooter + Demons Fair $1.3k 54 devs
  3. Arena Shooter + 2D Platformer Fair $809 45 devs
  4. Arena Shooter + Multiple Endings Fair $597 18 devs
  5. Arena Shooter + Collectathon Long shot $150 12 devs
  6. Arena Shooter + Deckbuilding Poor odds $3.1k 9 devs
  7. Arena Shooter + Bullet Heaven Poor odds $2.3k 75 devs
  8. Class-Based + Arena Shooter Poor odds $2.2k 19 devs
  9. Arena Shooter + Boomer Shooter Poor odds $1.8k 133 devs
  10. Arena Shooter + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.7k 59 devs
  11. Arena Shooter + On-Rails Shooter Poor odds $1.5k 10 devs
  12. Arena Shooter + RPG Poor odds $1.4k 88 devs
  13. Arena Shooter + Dystopian Poor odds $1.4k 22 devs
  14. Arena Shooter + Roguelite Poor odds $1.3k 231 devs
  15. Arena Shooter + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.3k 62 devs
  16. Spectacle fighter + Arena Shooter Poor odds $1.2k 24 devs
  17. Arena Shooter + Auto Battler Poor odds $1.2k 13 devs
  18. Arena Shooter + Idler Poor odds $1.2k 11 devs
  19. Arena Shooter + Roguelike Poor odds $1.2k 213 devs
  20. Arena Shooter + Loot Poor odds $1.1k 18 devs
  21. Fighting + Arena Shooter Poor odds $1.1k 14 devs
  22. Arena Shooter + Puzzle Poor odds $980 22 devs
  23. Arena Shooter + Real Time Tactics Poor odds $980 13 devs
  24. Arena Shooter + Gun Customization Poor odds $959 49 devs
  25. Arena Shooter + Driving Poor odds $958 13 devs
  26. Arena Shooter + Destruction Poor odds $899 37 devs
  27. Arena Shooter + Parkour Poor odds $899 23 devs
  28. Arena Shooter + Mechs Poor odds $899 18 devs
  29. Arena Shooter + Platformer Poor odds $898 50 devs
  30. Arena Shooter + Local Co-Op Poor odds $898 34 devs
  31. Co-op Campaign + Arena Shooter Poor odds $898 15 devs
  32. Online Co-Op + Arena Shooter Poor odds $809 55 devs
  33. Arena Shooter + Female Protagonist Poor odds $809 48 devs
  34. Arena Shooter + Time Manipulation Poor odds $809 11 devs
  35. Arena Shooter + War Poor odds $748 47 devs
  36. Arena Shooter + Split Screen Poor odds $748 27 devs
  37. Co-op + Arena Shooter Poor odds $719 74 devs
  38. Arena Shooter + Exploration Poor odds $719 35 devs
  39. Arena Shooter + Action Roguelike Poor odds $629 290 devs
  40. Action RPG + Arena Shooter Poor odds $629 64 devs
  41. Arena Shooter + Supernatural Poor odds $629 14 devs
  42. FPS + Arena Shooter Poor odds $628 267 devs
  43. Arena Shooter + Score Attack Poor odds $600 116 devs
  44. Arena Shooter + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $600 59 devs
  45. Arena Shooter + Crafting Poor odds $600 17 devs
  46. Arena Shooter + Bullet Hell Poor odds $599 324 devs
  47. Arena Shooter + Character Customization Poor odds $599 88 devs
  48. Arena Shooter + Twin Stick Shooter Poor odds $599 80 devs
  49. Arena Shooter + Local Multiplayer Poor odds $599 60 devs
  50. Arena Shooter + 2D Fighter Poor odds $599 46 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ULTRAKILL 2020 · EA · $192M Starship Troopers: Extermination 2024 · $27M Serious Sam 4 2020 · $19M Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor 2025 · $18M Brotato 2023 · $17M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ULTRAKILL · EA older $29.99 213,450 97% 6.4M $192M (exactly $192,040,965) Arsi "Hakita" Patala
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Serious Sam 4 older $39.99 15,612 83% 468k $19M (exactly $18,729,716) Croteam
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Brotato older $4.99 111,407 95% 3.3M $17M (exactly $16,677,628) Blobfish
DUSK older $19.99 22,073 97% 662k $13M (exactly $13,237,178) David Szymanski
MADNESS: Project Nexus older $24.99 15,977 97% 479k $12M (exactly $11,977,957) GIBBING TREE, LLC
Warhammer 40,000: Boltgun older $21.99 15,741 90% 472k $10M (exactly $10,384,338) Auroch Digital
Nova Drift older $17.99 12,975 95% 389k $7.0M (exactly $7,002,607) Chimeric
Shadow Warrior 3: Definitive Edition older $39.99 4,820 69% 145k $5.8M (exactly $5,782,554) Flying Wild Hog
Echo Point Nova $24.99 7,521 96% 226k $5.6M (exactly $5,638,494) Greylock Studio
Abyssus $24.99 5,014 84% 150k $3.8M (exactly $3,758,996) DoubleMoose Games
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
BRAZILIAN DRUG DEALER 3: I OPENED A PORTAL TO HELL IN THE FAVELA TRYING TO REVIVE MIT AIA I NEED TO CLOSE IT $4.99 7,743 97% 232k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,127) Joeveno
Vampire Hunters $14.99 1,941 89% 58k $873k (exactly $872,868) Gamecraft Studios
Vellum $19.99 1,290 89% 39k $774k (exactly $773,613) Alvios Games
Glyphica: Typing Survival · EA $9.99 2,488 90% 75k $746k (exactly $745,654) aliasBLACK
Bloodshed $12.99 1,824 84% 55k $711k (exactly $710,813) com8com1 Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.