Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Arcade game?

Arcade + Puzzle

Of 816 developers who shipped a Puzzle Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 689 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 470 developers shipped in the last year and 689 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 689 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 816
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $987 → $479 → $540 → $358 → $449 → $299 → $299 (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 816
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 5% $21k (exactly $21,307)
Developers, 2 yr 816
Released games 2,951
Announced 689
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade, Puzzle; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 38,200 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $21k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 459 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 689 games are announced against 470 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Tetris® Effect: Connected 2021 · $10M Tricky Towers 2016 · $5.6M UFO 50 2024 · $5.3M Katamari Damacy REROLL 2018 · $4.4M Melatonin 2022 · $3.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tetris® Effect: Connected older $39.99 8,429 94% 253k $10M (exactly $10,112,271) Monstars Inc., Resonair, Stage Games
Tricky Towers older $14.99 12,390 90% 372k $5.6M (exactly $5,571,783) WeirdBeard
UFO 50 $24.99 7,134 94% 214k $5.3M (exactly $5,348,360) Mossmouth
Katamari Damacy REROLL older $29.99 4,939 93% 148k $4.4M (exactly $4,443,618) MONKEYCRAFT Co. Ltd.
Melatonin older $14.99 7,554 94% 227k $3.4M (exactly $3,397,034) Half Asleep
Cat Goes Fishing older $6.99 15,431 94% 463k $3.2M (exactly $3,235,881) Cat5Games
Puyo Puyo™Tetris® older $19.99 4,679 84% 140k $2.8M (exactly $2,805,996) Sonic Team, Bitbaboon
Nubby's Number Factory $4.99 18,138 97% 544k $2.7M (exactly $2,715,259) MogDogBlog Productions
AudioSurf older $9.99 8,901 95% 267k $2.7M (exactly $2,667,630) Dylan Fitterer
Audiosurf 2 older $14.99 5,364 82% 161k $2.4M (exactly $2,412,191) Dylan Fitterer
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Lumines Arise $39.99 848 94% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,017,346) Enhance, Monstars Inc.
Yooka-Replaylee $29.99 1,045 92% 31k $940k (exactly $940,186) Playtonic Games
Darwin's Paradox! $24.99 843 87% 25k $632k (exactly $631,997) ZDT Studio
TETRIS® THE GRAND MASTER 4 -ABSOLUTE EYE- $24.99 610 87% 18k $457k (exactly $457,317) ARIKA
That's not my Neighbor $2.99 4,498 88% 135k $403k (exactly $403,471) Nachosama Games
Outhold $6.99 1,818 86% 55k $381k (exactly $381,235) Tellus Games
Tetris® Forever $34.99 304 74% 9.1k $319k (exactly $319,109) Digital Eclipse

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.